Weird things happen sometimes. The tortoise can beat the hare. You get a delicious, correctly cooked steak at a seafood joint. Your wife can do better in an NCAA Tournament pool than you just by picking teams with her favorite colors.
When these things happen, oftentimes you can find a reason, something that explains how this happened — the hare was lazy, the seafood cook accidentally removed the steak earlier than planned, you don’t know much about college hoops.
These are explanations, not excuses, and it is important to know the difference. If you know why something happened, you can better predict, or avoid, it happening again.
Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater has been surprisingly solid this season. However, two subpar games have dragged down his overall totals. So, what happened in those two games?
In one, versus the Jets in Week 3, the Broncos forged an early lead and the Jets’ offense posed zero threat — eventually getting shut out. So, Bridgewater needed to only throw a season-low (in games he finished) 25 passes. The Jets are much better defending against the pass than the run, so the early scores came on the ground, and little else was needed later. He finished with a paltry 11.8 fantasy points.
Yet, that game wasn’t his season low. That came the next week, when he was knocked out of the game versus the Ravens in the first half with a concussion, after just 16 pass attempts and one TD, netting just 6.8 fantasy points.
These aren’t excuses for his bad fantasy games, just explanations. If we know how and why they happen, we can better identify if they will happen again this week.
Against a Washington team that has the ability to move the ball and score some points, we don’t anticipate a shell offense like we saw against the Jets. Unless he is injured again, which is impossible to predict, there is no reason to anticipate a single-digit performance like he had versus the Ravens.
Instead, we should expect something more on par with his other five games — in which he averaged 18.5 fantasy points. Then we can factor in the specific matchup, this one being a Washington defense that allows 8.7 more fantasy points per week than the league average — the worst mark in the NFL. The Football Team has given up multiple TD passes in five consecutive weeks — including four each to the Falcons and Saints, neither of which has been lighting the skies on fire with their air attack.
Then you can factor in the health of the Denver offense, which is expected to welcome back receiver Jerry Jeudy, who has been out since Week 1 with an ankle injury. Even if he is rusty, he can take attention away from the surging Courtland Sutton, or create more space for Tim Patrick and tight end Noah Fant.
So if you are streaming QBs, scrambling each week trying to plug for Russell Wilson, or just need a one-off filler for Lamar Jackson, the man known as Teddy Two Gloves can be your one-hit wonder.
Carson Wentz QB, Colts, vs. Titans (FanDuel $7,200/DraftKings $5,700)
Has eight passing TDs and no INTs in past four games, plus a rushing score. Playing much better than he did at time of his Week 3 dud against these same Titans.
Phillip Lindsay RB, Texans, vs. Rams (FD $4,700/DK $4,000)
With the trade of Mark Ingram, there are 14 RB touches per game up for grabs. They all aren’t going to David Johnson, who is now a stiff. Lindsay the much more elusive of the two.
Samaje Perine RB, Bengals, vs. Jets (FD $5,700/DK $4,900)
Got double-digit touches last week with a healthy Joe Mixon. Expect similar this week — perhaps more if the Bengals pull away.
K.J. Osborn WR, Vikings, vs. Cowboys (FD $5,500/DK $3,800)
Has six or more targets in all but two games this season. In what could be a high-scoring affair, should be plenty of fantasy points to go around.
Joe Burrow QB, Bengals, vs. Jets (FD $7,800/DK $7,100)
Though ther Jets have been bad against the run, they’re not bad vs. the pass. And Burrow might not need to throw if they jump out to a comfortable lead.
Leonard Fournette RB, Buccaneers, at Saints (FD $7,200/DK $6,300)
In the Saints’ two worst games vs. RBs this season, much of the production came via the pass. Fournette has been more involved in the passing game this season, but he is not Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley.
Jerry Jeudy WR, Broncos, vs. Washington (FD $6,000/DK $4,900)
We are adverse to starting players off long-term injury absences, and Jeudy hasn’t played since Week 1 — his only game with QB Teddy Bridgewater.
Kadarius Toney WR, Giants, at Chiefs (FD $5,500/DK $4,900)
Too many unknowns regarding health of Giants WRs in general to wait it out until Monday. Use a safe Sunday option if possible.
Fantasy Insanity Daily Duel
Slate: Sun. main (12 games)
Type: $5 tourney
Top prize: $15K
Josh Allen (Buf, at Mia) $8,100
Samaje Perine (Cin, vs. NYJ) $4,900
Phillip Lindsay (Hou, vs. LAR) $4,000
Stefon Diggs (Buf, at Mia) $8,100
Courtland Sutton (Den, vs. Was) $6,400
Michael Pittman Jr. (Ind, vs. Ten)
Mike Gesicki (Mia, vs. Buf) $5,000
Kenneth Gainwell (Phi, at Det) $5,000
Falcons (Atl, vs. Car) $2,900
Ryan Tannehill (Ten, at Ind) $6,600
Joe Mixon (Cin, at NYJ) $6,900
James Robinson (Jac, at Sea) $6,600
A.J. Brown (Ten, at Ind) $6,900
Tee Higgins (Cin, at NYJ) $5,200
Cole Beasley (Buf, vs. Mia) $4,900
Tommy Sweeney (Buf, vs. Mia) $2,900
Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR, at Hou) $6,500
Bills (Buf, vs. Mia) $3,300
Season risked: $60
Season winnings: Jarad $10, Drew $5